"Futility" by Morgan Robertson

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1 Definition
- 1.1 History
2 Claims
3 Discussion
4 Titan/Titanic
5 Related Topics
6 References

[edit] Definition

"Futility" is a short story written by Morgan Robertson in 1898 in which an ocean liner named the Titan hit an iceberg and sank while travelling across the Atlantic. The story has a number of parallels with the sinking of the Titanic that occurred in 1912. This is sometimes put forward as an example of premonition.

[edit] History

The story (available online at http://www.msu.edu/~daggy/cop/effluvia/twott-t.htm ) describes in some detail the crossing of the Titan, the world's largest ocean liner, that sank in the north Atlantic after hitting an iceberg. It was originally published in 1898 under the name "Futility" and then republished in 1912 having changed its name to "The Wreck of the Titan". The only difference between the two are a couple of changes of the statistics of the ship (the weight and the horse power).

[edit] Claims

The list of similarities quoted usually consists of the following elements (statistics for the Titan taken from the 1898 version):

Both ships have similar names
Both ships were British made
Both ships were approximately the same length (Titan: 800 ft, Titanic: 882 ft)
Similar weight (Titan:45,000 tons, Titanic: 66,000)
Both ships had a similar horse-power (Titan: 40,000, Titanic: 46,000)
Both had a capacity of about 3,000 and at the time had about 2,000 passengers
Both hit an iceberg
Both hit on the starboard side
Both disasters happened in April
Neither ship had enough lifeboats, and they both had a similar number (Titan: 24, Titanic: 20)

Some sites add further coincidences, such as:

Both ships had the same number of propellors (3)
The two ships had a similar number of water-tight compartments (Titan: 19, Titanic: 16)
The top speed of both boats was 24 knots
Both disasters happened near midnight

[edit] Discussion

This phenomenon can be seen as an example of Selection Bias as data that supports the case is presented while data that doesn't is ignored.

Additionally, some of the coincidences are either (a) easily predictable at the time of writing, (b) not really that accurate or (c) not in the story in the first place.

Looking at the most commonly touted coincidences, some are clearly not so coincidental. That both ships should originate in Britain is no surprise since at the time Britain was the world's foremost shipbuilder. The predictions regarding weight and length are somewhat approximate.

With regards to the lack of lifeboats, this is not so much a prediction on Roberton's part, more a comment on contemporary ship building practices. In the online article "The Titanic Disaster: An Enduring Example of Money Management vs. Risk Management" Roy Brander writes:

"The committee of the British Board of Trade that made the regulations on life-boats was dominated by shipbuilders. They proved very able to convince themselves that boats for every person were not necessary. Thus the regulations of the time required only that a ship of Titanic's size carry boats sufficient for 962, though she could potentially carry over 3500 passengers and crew.

White Star's General Manager Harold Sanderson pointed out that the North Atlantic was so stormy that boats could not be lowered safely 95% of the time, and even once down, the passengers would be subject to additional dangers on the tossing sea."

[edit] Titan/Titanic

The most startling coincidence above all is the similarity in names between Titan and Titanic. In 2003, Senan Moloney wrote an article for the online resource Titanic Book Site where he finds three occasions before the writing of "Futility" where a ship named Titania sank at sea, and one of these bore certain similarities to the eventual Titanic disaster. It could be that, inspired by this disaster (or all three) Morgan Robertson chose to base his ocean liner's name on their names.