21 December 2012
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[edit] Definition
The 21st of December, 2012, is the day when the ancient Mayan Calendar runs out -- or at the very least, starts a new major cycle.
It is claimed that this date coincides with events of astronomical significance, indicating that the Mayan civilisation had access to sophisticated astronomical forecasting techniques [1].
[edit] Discussion
The 21st of December, 2012, is in fact the date of the Winter Solstice. It has no other particular astronomical significance.
Finding significance in this event is an example of the Birthday Paradox. There are a large number of different calendars (including several Mayan calendars), a large number of numerologically significant dates within those calendars, and a large number of "significant" astronomical events. Probability theory would predict that some of the significant dates would coincide with some of the astronomical events.
Whilst the a priori chance of this particular date coinciding with this particular event is low, the chance of any significant date coinciding with any astronomical event is high.
[edit] Eschatological claims
The association between the end of a calendar cycle and the end of the world may be familiar to anyone who remembers the claims surrounding 31 Dec 1999. There ought to be no reason why great cosmological events must coincide with the cycles of arbitrary and artificial human timekeeping constructs. Nevertheless, a surprising number of varied claims have been made for the particular date of 21 December 2012, apparently from different lines of reasoning.
[edit] Novelty Theory
The late Terence McKenna predicted 21 December 2012 as the date when “novelty levels will exponentially increase”. This prediction was based on his Novelty Theory, a bizarre pseudo-mathematical theory based on the I Ching. While the nature of the event is not clear, he speculated on extraterrestrial visitation, meteoroid impact, or “hyperspatial breakthrough” occurring on this date[2].
[edit] Galactic Alignment
Some have claimed that around 2012, the precession of the Earth causes the ecliptic to align with the galactic center, thus placing the sun in alignment with the galactic center on December 21st. The exact location of the galactic center is not known precisely, but more accurate astronomical calculations place the date of this alignment in 1998 or 1999[3]. In any case, claims that this will cause a Pole Shift or “Field-effect energy reversal” are pseudoscientific nonsense.
[edit] Bible Code
Michael Drosnin’s The Bible Code predicts a cometary impact with the Earth in 2012. The accuracy of Bible Code predictions might possibly be questioned in light of the accuracy of previous predictions of massive destruction in 2000 that failed to materialize.
[edit] Graham Hancock
Graham Hancock claimed in Fingerprints of the Gods that a planetary alignment would cause some kind of gravitational effect on Earth, wiping out most life on 23 December 2012. Planetary alignments have historically not caused much effect on Earthly life, but in any case, the referenced planetary alignment actually occurs the previous year.
[edit] References
- [1] Astronomy Answers
- [2] GreatDreams.com
