Conspiracy Theory
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[edit] Definition
A conspiracy theorist (or pejoratively, a conspiracy nut) is someone whose worldview tends to interpret events as relating to conspiracy theories.
[edit] Conspiracies and Conspiracy Theories
As a legal term, conspiracy refers to two or more people acting in the commission of a crime. The elements are generally 1) agreement to commit a crime, and 2) taking some overt action toward that goal. While secrecy is often necessary from a practical standpoint, it is not an element of the crime. The conspiracies postulated by conspiracy theories generally differ in several ways. First, the activity may be nominally legal, such as suppression of evidence of alien visitations. Second, the activity is motivated by political or sociological concerns, rather than ordinary criminal motives. Finally, conspiracy theories usually suppose conspiracies that continue indefinitely, making continued secrecy of nearly paramount importance.
[edit] Aspects of Conspiracy Theories
One necessary quality of a conspiracy theory is the cover-up, which is an act by the conspirators to hide the evidence of their actions. This is usually proffered by conspiracy theorists to explain why the evidence for their theory is lacking. For example, UFO theorists claim that the evidence for crashed spaceships, alien bodies, and their technology is being covered up by the governments and the witnesses silenced on pain of death.
Conspiracy theories generally defy Occam's Razor. The conspiracy itself, along with the cover-up, are generally very complex and involved, and there are usually much simpler explanations for the phenomenon. For example, Chemtrails are more likely the result of natural atmospheric phenomena regarding the formation of cirrus clouds than a secret government conspiracy to gas people or change the weather.
Conspiracy theories are usually the result of logical fallacies combined with a lack of understanding of the science involved. For example, Moon Hoax theorists claim that the lack of stars in photos from the moon is evidence that the moon landings were faked; this is based on a misunderstanding of photography and the nature of photographing the stars along with bright objects.
Conspiracy theorists will often employ a sort of "shotgun" approach, making dozens if not hundreds of claims supposedly supporting the theory. A theorist can make a claim in five seconds which can take a scientist much longer to refute (as the real world is much more complex than the world the conspiracy theorists inhabit in their minds). As a result, many of these claims can go unanswered, particularly in a single discussion. A conspiracy theorist might make 100 different claims, and if just one remains unanswered, he will cling to that as proof of his theory and that the skeptics have no answer. Of course, he will completely ignore the fact that 99 of his claims have just been shown to be wrong.
While incredibly varied in character, conspiracy theories generally have some common elements.
- the conspiracy has access and control of legions of hundreds or thousands of operatives, both for direct goals and for maintenance of secrecy.
- the commission of the illegal activity is accomplished through through existing social or governmental networks.
- secrecy is an overarching concern. Secrecy may be maintained through destruction and assassination, but more commonly, through absolute control of information channels or through intimidation of insiders. Strangely, it is sometimes claimed that secrecy is maintained by airing information openly to conspiracy nuts who will attract ridicule and refutation to the theory, thus discouraging any serious inquiry.
- the operation of the conspiracy is managed by a hierarchical organization. This allows management of the secret insider knowledge. This in turn helps to maintain secrecy, while at the same time permitting the operatives to act without knowing the true nature of their actions.
- the conspiracy has virtually unlimited resources, both monetary and personnel.
[edit] Conspiracies and Occam's Razor
One criticism of conspiracy theories is that they are invoked to explain bizarrely what can be explained simply and directly.
For example, consider two possible explanations for the Roswell Incident. One is that a top-secret experimental device for detecting nuclear tests crashed in the New Mexico desert. Another explanation is that an alien spacecraft crashed.
Supposing the first explanation to be correct, what evidence would we find?
- Securing of the area by the military,
- Collection of the debris and transfer to a secure facility
- Promulgation of a plausible cover story about “weather balloons” that doesn’t quite ring true.
Now, supposing the “alien spaceraft” theory to be correct, what would we find?
- Securing of the area by the military,
- Collection of the debris and transfer to a secure facility
- Promulgation of a plausible cover story about “weather balloons” that doesn’t quite ring true.
Characteristic of conspiracy theories, the evidence does not distinguish the official version from the conspiracy theory. In this case, most rational people would opt to apply Occam's Razor, and accept the version that does not postulate the existence of alien spacecraft.
[edit] Refuting Conspiracy Theories
Genuine conspiracies and cover-ups are very difficult to pull off. For example, the Watergate scandal was a conspiracy with a cover-up which was only known to a handful of people, and still there was a whistle-blower who ended up exposing the whole thing.
Conspiracy theories are generally not falsifiable, as any evidence refuting the theory is regarded as being part of the conspiracy.
It is common for conspiracy theorists to paint skeptics as being closed-minded. If anything, it is usually the conspiracy theorists who are closed-minded; the skeptics simply require sufficient evidence to be convinced, whereas the conspiracy theorists generally avoid considering that they might be wrong, mostly due to the falsifiability issue mentioned above.
Conspiracy theories generally end up being false dichotomies, and many times conspiracy theorists will treat problems with the "official" story as being proof of their conspiracy. But the conspiracy theory must rise or fall on its own merits.
Many times, individuals with similar motivations can act independently towards a certain end without conspiring to do so. This can give the appearance of a conspiracy, even though no such conspiracy is actually taking place. This problem can also work the other way: sometimes, skeptics will wrongly label a claim a "conspiracy theory" even if the claimant is just saying that people are motivated to work towards a particular goal.
Probably most importantly, conspiracy theories don't really achieve anything. They don't reform the system, or cause or even call for any social change for the better. What does it matter if, for example, the Federal Reserve was really formed by a conspiracy of bankers on Jekyll Island? Regardless of how it formed, the Fed is in place. Whether or not the Fed should be abolished is a separate issue which has nothing to do with how it came about.
[edit] Reasons for Conspiracy Theories
Conspiracy theorists probably have many motivations, which are unique to the individual. However, some general aspects of their motivations can be observed.
One such motivation is distrust of government. Usually, government is the entity engaging in the conspiracy and the ensuing cover-up, and the individuals who proffer these theories tend to be anti-government, at least to some degree. Since it is generally regarded that government tends to lie or at least spin the truth on many issues (evidenced by the popular joke, "How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips move!"), conspiracy theories can find easy audiences.
Another motivation is an odd sort of comfort. It's more comforting, for example, to believe that JFK was assassinated by government conspirators, because if it really was the work of one lone man, then that means that the government could not even protect the President from one man determined to do harm. What hope, then, is there that the government can protect the rest of us?
Conspiracy theories can be brought up as a means of avoiding a refutation of a claim, even if that claim is not itself a conspiracy theory. For example, the claim that cell phones cause brain cancer can be refuted with studies showing no such effect; the claimant can then say that those studies are part of a conspiracy by the cell phone manufacturers, and thus disregard the studies.
Conspiracy theories may be seen as attempts to explain simply the confusing world we live in. The societal mechanics that lead to wars and depressions are barely understood by experts, and completely impenetrable to the layman. But it may all become simpler if one postulates a secret group of Illuminati with total control of everything.
In extreme cases, those who obsessively cling to a conspiracy theory may be suffering from a psychological problem such as paranoia, denial, or schizophrenia.
A conspiracy theory, if believed, naturally moves most believers to outrage. Since the weak point in a conspiracy is its need for secrecy, the believer most often attempts to fight the conspiracy by exposing it. Thus, the belief itself motivates the believer to propound the entire theory to others. From the point of view that a conspiracy theory is a meme, conspiracy theories implicitly contain a reproductive mechanism.
Ironically, political elites use the popular belief in conspiracies (rather than conspiracies themselves) to tremendous political effect. Belief in Zionist conspiracies was wielded dangerously in America in the 1930s, and later in Nazi Germany, with the Jewish Holocaust being a direct consequence. Belief in communist infiltration was used in America in the 1950s to direct public opinion against political enemies.
[edit] Popular Conspiracy Theories
- UFOs: The government is suppressing evidence of extra-terrestrial visitation (or, rather, the government is actually controlled by the aliens!)
- Chemtrails: Harmful chemicals are being sprayed on the population from high-altitude aircraft
- Moon Hoax: The Apollo missions were elaborate hoaxes designed to encourage the American public, and demonstrate superiority over communism.
- JFK Assassination: The assassination of President Kennedy was orchestrated by the FBI or by political enemies.
- Illuminati: Secret societies such as the Masons harbor a secret group of powerful elite that have worked for centuries to establish a one-world government.
- Zionist World Domination: Elite Zionist leaders control the world’s banking and money supplies, and use economic incentives to enslave the gentile world.
- Satanic World Domination: In accordance with biblical prophecy, minions of Satan are plotting the enslavement of the human race.[1]
- 9/11 coverup The World Trade Center was deliberately destroyed by the government
- Port Chicago Explosion A secret nuclear weapon was tested on black sailors
