Shoehorning
From SkepticWiki
Contents |
[edit] Definition
Shoehorning refers to the process of force-fitting one object or concept into another, as one force-fits a foot (useing a shoehorn) into a tight-fitting shoe. In a skeptical context, this metaphor describes how proponents of an idea can retrofit events into an ambiguous theory or prophesy.
This retrofitting process tends to render the original theory or prophesy unfalsifiable, in that any events could be seized upon as a "proof" of the theory/prophesy.
[edit] Example
One of the more famous prophesies in Western history is the book of Revelation from the Bible, which purportedly describes the End Times at the end of the world. Part of the prophesy describes the appearance of a "beast" that will rule the world. (Contemporarily, the beast is often called the Antichrist, a term taken from the two letters of John). The beast and his actions are described fully in Revelations 13, and the beast is "identified" in Revelation 13:18 as follows:
- "Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six."
Who is the "the man" to which the number 666 refers?
Much current scholarship (and specifically Catholic theology) suggests that Revelation, written in the middle of the first century, refers primarily to then-current events and identifies "the beast" as the emperor Nero. When his name is written in Latin (NERON CAESAR), transliterated into Hebrew or Aramaic, and then transformed via standard numerology into numbers, the sum of the letters in Nero's name equals 666. Given Nero's rather severe persecution of the early Christian church, this suggests that Revelation was written and intended as an anti-Roman and anti-Imperial political pamphlet.
Alternatively, one of the titles of the Pope is "Vicar of Christ," or "Vicar of the Son of God." Written in Latin, this becomes "VICARIVS FILII DEI." Extracting only the letters with a standard interpretation as Roman numerals (VIC--IV- -ILII D-I), we see that these numbers add up to 666. Under this interpretation, Revelation may be a genuinely prophetic work foreshadowing the Protestant reformation and the corruption of the Catholic church as an aspect of the End Times.
In War and Peace, one of the characters convinces himself that the Emperor Napoleon (Bonaparte) is in fact the beast, by a different (but similar in spirit) numerological transformation. Other numerologists have identified "the beast" with Adolph Hitler, with Martin Luthor, with Ellen Gould White (one of the founders of Seventh-Day Adventism, with Ronald Reagan, with Bill Gates, and for that matter, with Windows 95.
[edit] Another Example
Another famous prophet was Michel de Nostredame, better known to history as Nostradamus. In the middle of the 16th century (CE) he produced a collection of prophetic "quatrains," four-line verses that purported describe future events. A typical example is as follows (Century I, quatrain 4):
- In the world there will be made a king
- who will have little peace and a short life.
- At this time the ship of the Papacy will be lost,
- governed to its greatest detriment.
Who is this "king"? (The author's preferred interpretation is John F. Kennedy; president of the United States during the Cold War and assassinated mid-term. As the first Catholic president of the United States, at his death, the Papacy no longer controlled the "ship" of State.) (Alternatively, the author's preferred interpretation is Elvis Presley, "the king" of rock and roll, who died tragically of a drug overdose.) (Alternatively, the author's preferred interpretation is Adolph Hitler, "king" of Germany during the second World War. You get the idea.)
[edit] Discussion
As both of these examples illustrate, a sufficiently vague statement can be reinterpreted to an almost arbitrary degree in order to force a match with later events. This technique can also be usefully used by cold readers, by making vague statements and relying upon the mark to shoehorn these statement into facts. For example, a dead relative "holding his hand over his chest" might have died of a heart attack, of a gunshot wound, or simply had chronic breathing difficulties, but any of these statement could be read as "confirmation" of the reader's "vision."
Because of this possibility of reinterpreting, almost any "interpretation" of a prophesy will at best be controversial, as this fragment illustrates:
- Many have heard that Nostradamus accurately predicted the assassinations of JFK and RFK 400 years in advance, but did he really make such a prediction or are his fans trying to make his prophecies fit history and thereby unduly exalt his predictive powers? Dear reader, carefully ponder the following for yourself. This is supposed to be the Kennedy assassination predictions:
- The great man will be struck down in the day by a thunderbolt. An evil deed, foretold by the bearer of a petition. According to the prediction another falls at night time. Conflict at Reims, London, and pestilence in Tuscany (PON, p. 33).
- Please note that the facts reveal that there was no specific mention of the name Kennedy as you might have thought, or of his time frame or century, neither was it stated that it would be the brother or even a relative who would �fall at night time.� Furthermore, as we look back into history, how did the Kennedy assassinations trigger pestilence in Tuscany? In spite of all of this, however, one of his devotees wishes to understand this quatrain as meaning:
- The first three lines here may apply to the assassinations of the two Kennedy brothers. John F. Kennedy was shot down (thunderbolt) in broad daylight at Dallas, Texas on 22nd November 1963 by the psychopath, Lee Harvey Oswald. The other man linked with him who is killed at night, was his brother Robert F. Kennedy who was shot down on 5th June 1968 in the early morning while celebrating his victory in the presidential primary elections at a hotel. Line 2, the fact that the assassination had been told by the bearer of a petition may refer to the many death threats John F. Kennedy and his brother received during their terms of office. The troubles in France, England and Italy would refer to the world repercussions of these assassinations (PON, p. 33).
- Dear reader, isn�t it clear from the evidence that the predictions that Nostradamus allegedly made about the Kennedy assassinations are contrived! If you stopped someone at random on the sidewalk who never heard of Nostradamus and gave him this actual quatrain, do you sincerely think he would say it predicted the Kennedy assassinations? Never! Furthermore, if RFK was to be the other man who falls at night time, why does the record instead show he was shot in the early morning?[1]
For this reason among many others, skeptical analysis of "prophesy," especially of "historic" prophesies where the accuracy is judged only via hindsight, is difficult.
[edit] References
- Revelation, King James (Authorized) Version
- Life and Prophesies of Nostradamus
