Wishful Thinking
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[edit] Definition
Wishful thinking is an informal logical fallacy where a participant claims that a statement is true [false] because the consequences are so desirable [undesirable]. It is specifically an instance of the argument from consequences fallacy. In its most general form, the argument runs like this:
- It would be nice if P
- Therefore, P
This is a fallacy because the world does not always act according to our desires.
[edit] Examples
Example 1:
- Antagonist: Of course scientists will eventually invent a cure for AIDS; otherwise there will be a global epidemic that will wipe out humanity.
Example 2:
- Antagonist: Of course the jury will acquit me, because otherwise I wouldn't get to spend Christmas with what's left of my family.
Example 3:
- Antagonist: Did you see how Pat, my extremely attractive co-worker, smiled at me over lunch today? Obviously dying to be asked out by me!
[edit] Discussion
This fallacy is often applied to the (mis)interpretetation of ambiguous data, as in the third example above. We have, perhaps unconsciously, a tendency to interpret data in the most favorable light. Psychologists have identified the so-called Forer effect, the tendency of people to overapply statements (especially positive ones) as descriptive of them personally. The Forer effect, in conjunction with wishful thinking, may go part of the way to explaining the popularity of such pseudosciences as astrology and other forms of divination.
[edit] Exceptions to the Rule
Where the discussion does not concern a fact about the world, but a plan or proposed course of action, it is appropriate to consider the expected consequences and take the action most likely to produce desirable effects. For example, the following argument is not fallacious :
- If we do not invent a cure for AIDS, we risk a global, species-ending, epidemic.
- Therefore, we should increase science funding so that a cure for AIDS is more likely to be found.
